10/23/26 Weekly Market Recap

Agricultural commodity markets spent the week balancing harvest pace gains across the Corn Belt against lingering post-WASDE supply pressure and ongoing geopolitical shocks in energy markets. Clear weather windows midweek allowed combines to make significant progress, but seasonal yield realization and heavy commercial movement kept near-term rallies capped. Meanwhile, livestock markets saw aggressive price action as feeder cattle and live cattle futures pushed near top technical resistance levels before encountering some late-week profit-taking.

Corn: Corn spent the week working to consolidate above contract lows, battling seasonal harvest momentum. The USDA Crop Progress report showed the national corn harvest advancing to 44% complete (an 11-point jump week-over-week, though remaining 8 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace of 52%). Crop condition ratings for remaining unharvested acres held steady at 56% good-to-excellent. December corn closed at $4.56.

Soybeans: Soybean futures faced two-sided action as field progress accelerated rapidly across the Midwest. National soybean harvest jumped to 64% complete (nearing the 5-year average of 65%), with 96% of leaves dropped. While domestic crush margins remained historically profitable and Gulf export inspections showed steady volume, seasonal harvest pressure kept November soybeans pinned, closing at $12.56 ½ .

Wheat: Wheat saw followed the other grains lower, balancing dry conditions across key global export origins against rain across the U.S. Southern Plains. Winter wheat planting reached 63% complete (behind the 69% 5-year average), with 39% emerged. Chicago December wheat settled at $6.25 and KC closed at $6.64 ½ .

Cotton: Cotton futures saw modest gains, drawing underlying support from harvest progress reports and dry weather across Texas. USDA reported national cotton harvest reaching 41% complete (ahead of the 37% 5-year average) with 85% of bolls opening. December cotton closed at 80.20 cents/lb.

The cattle complex delivered strong fundamental performance as feedlots continued to capitalize on reduced grain feed costs and structural replacement calf tightness.

Live Cattle: Live cattle futures traded firm, drawing support from steady physical cash cattle trade. October live cattle contracts held into late-week trade as packers maintained steady slaughter schedules despite tight processing margins. October live cattle settled at $231.125.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle contracts continued to trade near upper resistance levels, supported by some aggressive replacement bidding at regional auctions. Feeder Cattle closed at $345.35.

Cattle on Feed Report: The USDA's October 2026 Cattle on Feed report puts cattle and calves on feed in U.S. feedlots at 11.4 million head on October 1, slightly below a year ago. September placements were 1.78 million head, 12% below last year and the lowest September since the series began in 1996. Lighter cattle made up much of the drop: placements under 600 lbs were 360,000 head, down from 405,000 a year earlier. Fed cattle marketings were 1.52 million head, down 7% and also a record low for September. Other disappearances were 49,000 head, down 4%.

Macro markets were dominated by a historic surge in energy prices alongside shifting equity market valuations.

Crude Oil: WTI crude futures surged back above the century mark, closing near $102 per barrel (with global Brent crude crossing $115/bbl to hit multi-month highs). The massive rally was driven by escalating Middle East supply risks, reports of maritime vessel disruptions in the Gulf region, and tightening global commercial crude inventories.

S&P 500 & Equities: Equities saw choppy, two-sided trade as Wall Street digested Q3 corporate earnings results against surging energy costs and persistent 5% 10-year Treasury yields. The S&P 500 fluctuated , struggling to sustain rallies as rising fuel costs and elevated corporate borrowing rates weighed on broad market sentiment, closing near 7665.