7/31/26 Weekly Market Recap

The markets experienced high volatility this week, kicking off with a sell-off across grains and livestock before attempting to find stability late in the week. A combination of shifting weather models, headlines surrounding potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions and Turkish port interventions, and surprising USDA announcements weighed heavily on trade sentiment early on. While heat and humidity blanketed much of the Corn Belt early in the week, extended 15-day forecasts moved toward cooler, near-normal temperatures and rainfall, stripping out a portion of the weather premium built into late July prices.

Corn: Corn futures faced downside pressure as weather models pointed to adequate moisture across key growing regions, stabilizing perceived yield potential. December corn gave back recent gains above technical resistance, slipping back and closing Friday at $4.63 ¾ .

Soybeans: Soybeans led the early-week grain complex downturn, pressured by profit-taking after hitting 2026 highs the previous week, combined with cooler extended weather forecasts for the early post-pollination window. A lack of major new export sales to China further capped upside momentum. November soybeans pulled back from recent highs, closing Friday at $11.88 ¼ .

Wheat: Wheat was heavily influenced by shifting geopolitical headlines out of the Black Sea. After surging on previous port disruptions, prices pulled back as reports indicated diplomatic efforts by Turkey and renewed ceasefire dialogue aimed at keeping grain export corridors open. Spring wheat condition ratings held steady near 53% good-to-excellent. Chicago September wheat closed Friday down at $6.38, while KC September wheat closed at $7.07 ½ . The respective December contracts closed at $6.56 ¼ and $7.23 ¾ .

Cotton: Cotton futures saw mixed action throughout the week. Early gains supported by crude oil spillover and crop condition deterioration in Texas gave way to speculative profit-taking. December cotton closed Friday at 81.65 cents/lb.

The livestock complex came under severe selling pressure early in the week before stabilizing on short-covering into Friday’s close. Sentiment was shaken early by the USDA’s unexpected announcement of a phased reopening of the U.S. southern border to Mexican cattle imports in late August. This raised concerns over near-term feeder supply logistics despite heavy feeder cattle placement losses.

Live Cattle: Live cattle futures showed strength this week, closing in the green each day. The complex brushed off early news regarding Mexican border openings, with cash trading around $2 higher and boxed beef values holding strong. The October contract closed Friday green at $227.25.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle bore the brunt of the early-week decline due to the Mexican import announcements. October feeder cattle closed Friday at $343.775 completely rebounding from the hard sell off on Monday.

The broader macro and equities markets navigated a heavy slate of earnings reports, fluctuating treasury yields, and energy market adjustments throughout the week.

Crude Oil: Crude oil pulled back from mid-month highs as Middle East escalation fears temporarily eased following talks of a memorandum of understanding in Geneva. Crude oil closed Friday at $84.67 gaining back the hard sell-off early in the week..

S&P 500: Equities traded with high volatility as investors processed corporate earnings results alongside shifting interest rate expectations. Rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields lingering near 4.7% presented headwinds for tech and growth equities before the market stabilized heading into the weekend. The S&P 500 closed up Friday at 5502.50.

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