7/24/26 Weekly Market Recap

The grain complex saw prices climb this week. Continued geopolitical turmoil in the Black Sea and Middle East has caused energy to surge, bringing grains with it. However, on Friday headlines stated that Ukraine is considering a way to alert both them and Russia when a vessel is coming through so they can keep the port open and avoid firing at protected vessels. This news caused a hard sell off Friday morning in wheat. Corn and beans rebounded from the sell off while wheat had a hard time recovering. Weather is a large driver in prices this time of year. Europe is suffering a severe heat wave, however the next week forecast in the US seems to be on track for normal.

Corn: Corn found underlying support from extreme weather concerns in Europe, where the EU's total grain output could shrink by more than 9%. Domestically, conditions are holding steady despite the heat. The July 20 USDA Crop Progress report showed the U.S. corn crop is rated 67% good-to-excellent. Dec corn finally broke above the $4.75 resistance level and closed Friday at $4.87 ¼ .

Soybeans: Soybeans found support from the broader grain rally and energy market spillover. The U.S. soybean crop is currently rated 66% good-to-excellent. Nov Beans saw highs for 2026 on Wednesday and continued to new highs on Friday closing at $12.52 ½ .

Wheat: Wheat broke out to lead the complex amid fresh war risks and weather. Headlines indicated that Russia and Ukraine are intensifying attacks on each other's export corridors just as harvests are in full swing. Additionally, Europe's severe June heat wave is expected to cost European grain farmers roughly €2 billion in lost revenue. Chicago Sept wheat closed down Friday at $6.78 and KC closed at 7.45 ¼ . The respective Dec contracts closed at $6.97 and $7.61 ½ .

Cotton: The December contract closed Friday at . Surging crude oil prices helped lift cotton by making synthetic fibers more expensive to produce. Additionally, weather remains a major fundamental driver.

The cattle markets experienced significant pressure early in the week before seeing a bounce on Thursday, as the industry holds its breath for Friday's major USDA Cattle on Feed and semi-annual Cattle Inventory reports. Thursday morning volume and open interest increased significantly and led to a reversal in the recent downtrend.

Live Cattle: Live cattle futures were sharply lower through Wednesday, pressured by lower cash fed cattle prices and declining wholesale beef values. Cash fed cattle trade saw early bids drop. However, futures managed to secure a mid-day bounce on Thursday, posting gains as traders squared up positions ahead of Friday's data releases. They closed Friday in the green at $222.50.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle followed a similar downward trajectory early in the week. Along with the live cattle complex, feeder contracts saw a slight recovery during Thursday's session. They also closed green on Friday at $341.45.

On Friday afternoon, the USDA released its Cattle on Feed and bi-annual Cattle Inventory reports, offering a supportive fundamental backdrop for a cattle complex that had been under pressure recently. The Cattle on Feed data delivered a bullish outlook on placements, which dropped 3% to 1.40 million head, while the July 1 on-feed inventory of 11.37 million head (up 2%) and June marketings of 1.66 million head (down 3%) landed right on top of trade estimates. The July Cattle Inventory report showed the U.S. cattle herd stabilizing, with all cattle and calves at 94.2 million head as of July 1, 2026, up slightly from 94.0 million in 2025. Beef cows held at 28.5 million head, still down 1% from last year, while milk cows rose 2% to 9.65 million. The clearest sign of herd rebuilding came from heifer retention, with beef replacement heifers up 3% and milk replacement heifers up 3% from a year ago, as producers hold back more females rather than sending them to slaughter. Despite the uptick in heifer retention, the 2026 calf crop is still expected to fall 2% from last year to 32.5 million head, since the breeding herd base remains smaller. Taken together, the report points to a herd that is bottoming out and beginning to rebuild, but with the calf crop still contracting it is still an indicator of tight supplies.

The broader macro and equities markets have been highly volatile this week amid central bank decisions, a busy earnings week, and energy supply disruption concerns.

Crude Oil: Oil and energy prices tracked renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Iran-backed Houthis resuming attacks on commercial shipping on July 23, expanding the conflict into the Red Sea. It touched May highs and then gave some back on Friday closing at $90.47..

S&P 500: Wall Street heavily scrutinized Wednesday's second-quarter earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla, focusing on whether massive AI infrastructure is generating real returns. Meanwhile, inflation and rate concerns linger. On Thursday, July 23, the ECB held its key interest rate steady at 2.25%. Additionally 10-year U.S. treasury yields have raised to 4.7% further adding to the sell off late in the week. Friday closed at 7444.

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. You should consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of futures results. The risk of loss in trading futures or options can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.