7/16/26 Weekly Market Recap

The grain complex saw a strong start to the week before giving some back on Tuesday. The continued geopolitical turmoil has caused crude to surge which brought the grains with it. Weather is looking like the Northern plains will be getting some moisture, while the Great Lakes may be getting cooler than usual.

• Corn: Corn futures gapped higher on Sunday night following a friendly WASDE report last Friday that lowered ending stock estimates for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 crops. Hot and dry weather added support early on. Prices retreated from early-week high, but by Wednesday's close, September corn was in the green. USDA data also showed crop conditions slightly improving. September closed at $4.41 and December closed at $4.64 after almost hitting the $4.74 level at the high of day on Thursday.
• Soybeans: Soybeans surged early in the week on a positive China buying outlook, coupled with tight new crop ending stock estimates. Like corn, beans retreated, but August soybeans still closed in the green on Wednesday. Soybeans also had a slight improvement in crop conditions. September closed Thursday at $11.83 ¾ and the November contract closed at $11.93 ¾ .
• Wheat: Wheat traded similar to the other grains at the beginning of the week, but broke out to lead the complex mid-week. Headlines indicated that Ukraine and Russia have been attacking one another leading to the Kerch Strait remaining closed, raising fears that export routes could be disrupted. This headline drove KC Wheat to close limit-up on Wednesday. September KC closed Thursday at $7.16 ½ and Chicago closed at $6.74 ¼ . The respective December contracts closed Thursday at $7.31 ¼ and $6.90 ¾ .

The cattle markets have struggled this week amid continued lower box-beef prices, lower cash trade and Brazil tariff news.

• Live Cattle: Live cattle futures remain in a solid downtrend, pressured by weak boxed beef prices and seasonal slump in demand. Cash cattle trade developed at sharply lower prices, with dressed deals marked lower than previous averages. August live cattle closed Thursday at $227.075. Funds have also been liquidating their long positions as the downtrend continues.
• Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle also remain in the downtrend, though they did attempt a brief midday rally on Wednesday. August feeders managed a slight gain to close at $349.95 on Wednesday, but it was not enough to reverse the broader downtrend sweeping the cattle complex. News broke that the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) exempted Brazilian beef from a newly proposed 25% tariff. The market read this as a signal that cheaper imported beef supplies will remain easily accessible, applying further bearish pressure. The August contract closed Thursday at $346.6.

• Crude Oil: Oil prices have seen positive gains this week, tracking geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. August crude oil closed Thursday at $79.58.

• Cotton: Cotton futures saw on Monday with the December contract reaching a new high for the month at 82.96. However the rug was pulled Thursday when it closed at 79.23. Dry weather in the Texas Panhandle & Friday’s WASDE numbers contributed to the recent support on cotton.

• S&P 500: S&P futures started the week near the recent highs, hovering near the 7600 level as tech shares rebounded from late last week's sell-off. Upward momentum continued into Thursday morning after the release of highly anticipated CPI data showing that consumer prices actually fell 0.4% in June, and core inflation flattened out at 2.6% over the past year. This cooling inflation data eased market worries, however the market remains in a choppy range. President Trump is expected to address the nation tonight (Thursday) and the market seems jumpy ahead of any potential announcements.