---
title: "Grain Stocks vs. WASDE: Breaking Down the September Commodity Shift"
description: grain stocks vs wasde
---

[TXRM Blog](https://blog.texashedgerisk.com/txrm-blog)

# [Grain Stocks vs. WASDE: Breaking Down the September Commodity Shift](https://blog.texashedgerisk.com/txrm-blog/grain-stocks-vs.-wasde-breaking-down-the-september-commodity-shift)

 Written by [Brynna Haschke](https://blog.texashedgerisk.com/txrm-blog/author/brynna-haschke) | Sep 30, 2026, 7:38:18 PM

The USDA released its quarterly Grain Stocks report on September 30, 2026, providing an official physical tally of old-crop inventories across farms and commercial storage as of September 1. While corn drew the sharpest headlines due to a surprise build in holdings, data across soybeans, wheat, and corn revealed noticeable shifts when compared against previous estimates from the September 12 WASDE report.

Here is a full commodity comparison of how the physical inventory counts align with earlier WASDE expectations.

### **Corn: Large Old-Crop Surplus**

Old-crop corn inventories provided the report's headline shock, exceeding trade estimates and topping earlier USDA models.

- September 30 Grain Stocks: 2.095 billion bushels (787 million bushels stored on-farm; 1.31 billion bushels stored off-farm).
- September WASDE Projection: 1.922 billion bushels.
- The Variance: +173 million bushels higher.

**What Drove the Difference?**

Fourth-quarter (June–August) implied disappearance reached 3.20 billion bushels up from 3.10 billion bushels during the same period in 2025. However, this draw-down was not aggressive enough to offset large starting carry-in supplies. The result pushed old-crop carryout above the 2.0 billion bushel mark, triggering immediate downward pressure on futures prices.

### **Soybeans: Tighter Than Forecast**

Soybean holdings contracted more than anticipated, signaling strong domestic crushing and late-season export usage during the summer months.

- September 30 Grain Stocks: 315 million bushels (90.4 million bushels on-farm; 225 million bushels off-farm), down 3% year-over-year.
- September WASDE Projection: 340 million bushels.
- The Variance: -25 million bushels lower.

**What Drove the Difference?**

June–August disappearance expanded to 744 million bushels, up from 683 million bushels a year prior. This tighter ending stock total provides a leaner starting carry-in supply for the 2026/27 marketing year balance sheet.

### **All Wheat: Physical Tally Beats Expectations**

Because the wheat marketing year begins June 1, the September 1 figure represents Q1 ending stocks rather than old-crop carryout.

- September 30 Grain Stocks: 1.846 billion bushels (547 million bushels on-farm; 1.30 billion bushels off-farm), down 14% year-over-year.
- September WASDE Implied Estimate: ~1.780 billion bushels.
- The Variance: ~+66 million bushels higher.

**What Drove the Difference?**

First-quarter indicated disappearance fell to 608 million bushels compared to 710 million bushels last year, pointing to weaker-than-projected feed and residual usage during the summer.

[View full post](https://blog.texashedgerisk.com/txrm-blog/grain-stocks-vs.-wasde-breaking-down-the-september-commodity-shift)

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