Grains traded with increased momentum this week. A sharply higher open Sunday night based on hotter weather forecasts, combined with news of the 10% retaliatory Chinese tariff getting removed, boosted early buying interest across the complex. Grain markets experienced solid follow through higher on Tuesday spurred by confirmations that China is back in the cash market for soybeans. Wednesday and Thursday grains had some back and fill to retest the breakout level. The July WASDE report came in line with expectations, with corn ending stocks decreasing, wheat ending stocks decreasing, and soybeans relatively unchanged. The old crop corn balance sheet is seeing the largest revisions, leading analysts to question the accuracy of last year’s yield numbers.
Corn: September contracts started the week explosively higher, retested the breakout level later in the week, but gained 16 cents on the week and closed at $4.38 ½ . December futures had a similar pattern and closed at $4.60 ½ . Weather is still an important factor to consider throughout the next few weeks.
Soybeans: September contracts saw gains early in the week on news of China buying more beans and started to consolidate towards the end of the week and closed at $11.79 ¾ . September beans gained 45 cents on the week. The November contract closed at $11.89 ½. The soybean complex was further supported by strength in soymeal, which broke out higher on improved demand and feed usage prospects, while soybean oil saw volatile but firm trade amid biodiesel demand and global vegetable oil dynamics.
Wheat: The wheat complex benefited from rising tides in corn and beans, but felt the biggest move for the week on Friday, closing out the week 37 cents higher. The July WASDE projected lower U.S. wheat production for 2026/27, resulting in reduced ending stocks- adding fundamental support. Geopolitical risks provided an additional boost, as ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics have disrupted shipping through the Kerch Strait, raising concerns about Black Sea wheat export flows from Russia.September KC closed at $6.76 ¼ and Chicago closed at $6.39 ¼ and the respective December contracts closed at $6.90 ¼ and $6.53 ¾ .
Livestock markets were weaker all week, even with cash feeders trading steady to higher in many places. Softer boxed beef prices and lower cash trade pressured the live cattle board. The complex saw declining open interest all week, indicating that funds are losing their appetite for cattle.
Live Cattle: August continued the current downtrend and settled at $235, almost $4 lower on the week. Box beef and cash were significantly lower this week.
Feeder Cattle: Also continued a downtrend with August contracts closing at $354.6, six dollars lower on the week and $22 off the highs from two weeks ago. Recent cash auctions have been steady to higher, creating extremely strong basis for hedgers.
Cotton: Saw a notable rally Monday on positive reaction to tariff news, reaching a one-month high on Tuesday before closing high on Friday at $81.55. Overall, the market remains supported by weather in key U.S. growing regions and global supply dynamics. The WASDE had cotton lower stocks overall.
Crude Oil: Risk was added back into the market on news of the Iran ceasefire coming to an end, closing the week at $71.51, up around $3. The market also held technical support on the chart after filling the gap that was left from the beginning of the Iran war.
S&P 500: The S&P closed at 7626 , showing resilience and challenging the all time highs. The market is risk-on but still within the same range we’ve seen since late May.