This week's trade was marked by high volatility, particularly in crude oil and cattle, as markets reacted to geopolitical events, supply dynamics, and technical pressures.
Commodities Overview
Grains: Prices were mostly flat to soft due to favorable U.S. planting progress, robust supplies, and varied weather outlooks.
Corn: Nearby May contracts saw slight weekly losses, closing near $4.48/bu after modest daily fluctuations and technical selling.
Soybeans: Nearby May traded choppily around $11.6575/bu, ending modestly lower on pressure from Brazilian supplies, despite some support from meal demand.
Wheat (Chicago SRW): Nearby May was volatile, settling near $5.8975/bu after initial gains based on drought concerns faded. There is also some added fear from potential frost risk over the weekend
Cattle: Live and feeder cattle futures initially surged, approaching or hitting contract highs on tight supply fundamentals and strong cash trade. However, profit-taking and pre-report selling caused a sharp decline on Thursday and Friday, leading to lower closes.
Live Cattle: Nearby May contracts, which opened sharply higher, closed at $247.15 after Thursday's significant drop ($2–$3.50+).
Feeder Cattle: Feeders spiked lower hitting limit down for a short period of time over rumors of the Mexican border reopening. Brooke Rollins also held a press conference sharing news of a sterile fly facility near the southern border to help work towards eradicating the screwworm threat. Nearby May contracts rallied early before falling to $365 by the close.
Crude Oil (WTI): Extreme volatility was driven by U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Nearby May contracts initially spiked on fears of a Hormuz Strait disruption but then plummeted to close around $83.51 as tensions eased and the strait remained open.
Key Report
USDA Cattle on Feed Report: The April 1 data, released today (April 17), was viewed as mostly neutral-to-bullish, reinforcing the tight supply narrative. On-feed inventories were estimated at 99% and actual was also 99%. Cattle placed in March was estimated at 93% and actual was 93%. The estimates for cattle marketed in March were 93% and actual was 94%.
Equity Markets
S&P 500: The index saw a strong rally, climbing steadily to approximately 7166. It gained roughly 3% for the week, recovering prior losses on optimism for a ceasefire, softer inflation data, and general risk-on sentiment.