Agricultural commodity markets were anchored this week by the highly anticipated release of the USDA’s September WASDE and Crop Production reports. Grains traded with cautious positioning leading into the Friday morning numbers, with analysts watching closely to see if yield adjustments justified the late-summer rallies. Meanwhile, the livestock complex staged a fundamental rebound as short-covering and firm cash cattle trade helped futures shake off the political and trade headlines that dominated late August.
Corn: December corn spent the week drifting lower in pre-report positioning following its late-August run. Ahead of Friday’s WASDE, traders priced in expectations for national yields to be cut following late-summer heat and uneven rain across the Corn Belt. September’s WASDE yield came in lower than August's at 178.5 as well as ending stocks coming in lower at 1.567B bu from 1.653 B bu. December corn closed at $5.32.
Soybeans: Soybeans were choppy until the end of the week. While the market braced for potential WASDE adjustments to new-crop production, solid domestic crush and steady routine export demand helped absorb some pre-report selling pressure. Yield was slightly changed from August’s report from 52.7 to 52.8 and ending stocks were reduced from 320 M.bu to 310 M.bu. November closed the week at $12.99.
Wheat: Wheat futures were lower on the week. Domestic balance sheets saw minimal expected changes in Friday’s WASDE release. Concerns over Black Sea export access and lower spring wheat yields in the Northern Plains kept an underlying bid in the market, though weaker overall U.S. export pacing capped major upside breakouts. December Chicago wheat closed at $7.26 ¼ and KC wheat closed at $7.98 ½ .
Cotton: Cotton futures saw mild profit-taking, drifting back down. Despite West Texas supply tightness, macro headwinds and lower international fiber trading volume allowed prices to rebound slightly from last week’s sell off. December closed at 86.19 cents/lb
The cattle market found solid footing this week, executing a strong technical and fundamental rebound as supply realities overrode recent policy shocks.
Live Cattle: Futures rebounded as traders digested recent policy developments like the tariff-free ground beef quotas and Mexican border reopenings. A wave of short covering, coupled with post-Labor Day retail beef demand, pushed October live cattle up. Physical cash trade held firm, while comments from major packing executives confirmed that the domestic herd expansion remains exceptionally slow, guaranteeing tight overall cattle supplies into the fall. October live cattle closed at $219.675.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle contracts tracked the live cattle higher. Demand at regional replacement auctions remained very aggressive, as feedlots continue to compete over limited calf numbers despite elevated feed costs. October feeder cattle closed at $332.5.
Macro markets were driven by energy price spikes and equity volatility tied to Middle East tensions.
Crude Oil: Crude oil surged past $100 per barrel mid-week as fresh military flare-ups in the Middle East stoked fears of global energy shipping bottlenecks. Crude closed around 100.50 per barrel.
S&P 500: Equities came under pressure mid-week as surging crude oil prices and rising bond yields prompted sell-offs across major indexes, as well as digesting the CPI & PPI data. Friday closed near 7660.
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