Agricultural commodity markets spent the week navigating a tug-of-war between strong export demand, shifting August weather models, and intense summer heat across the Central Plains and Midwest. Grains kicked off August by staging a short-covering bounce following late July’s sell-off, boosted by soybean export sales to China. However, gains were capped mid-week as scattered regional rainfall and seasonal temperatures eased immediate crop stress. Meanwhile, traders are actively positioning ahead of the August 12 USDA WASDE report.
Corn: Corn futures saw an early-week bounce on technical buying and short covering. The Monday USDA Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn condition ratings slipping 2% to 61% good-to-excellent. Industrial demand showed resilience, with June corn-for-ethanol usage up 4% year-over-year. However, mid-week weather forecasts showing favorable moisture across parts of the Corn Belt limited upside momentum. December corn held onto modest gains, closing Friday at $4.62
Soybeans: Soybeans found early momentum from good export activity, as the USDA confirmed over 1.0 million metric tons of U.S. bean sales to China.. The USDA rated the U.S. soybean crop at 63% good-to-excellent, with 62% of the crop setting pods. Crushing data remained strong. Despite mid-week profit taking driven by mild near-term temperatures, November soybeans closed Friday firm at $11.76.
Wheat: The wheat complex drew some support from harvest progress updates and tightening international supply estimates. Winter wheat harvest reached 86% complete, while spring wheat condition ratings improved slightly to 55% good-to-excellent. Global supply chatter gained traction after the USDA’s Canadian Representative lowered Canada's 2026/27 production estimate to 34.6 million tons due to reduced acreage. Chicago December wheat closed Friday at $6.56, while KC December wheat closed at $7.31.
Cotton: Cotton futures traded higher as persistent triple-digit heat across West Texas continued to degrade dryland crop conditions. While export commitments have been routine, crop stress kept a fundamental floor under prices. December cotton closed Friday at 84.38 cents/lb.
Live Cattle: Cash fed cattle trade demonstrated strong leverage early in the week. However, futures contracts faced heavy selling pressure through Thursday as a pull-back in Choice boxed beef values triggered technical stop-loss selling. Weekly slaughter volume dropped to an estimated 512,000 head, 25,000 below last year's levels. October live cattle closed Friday at $225.275.
Feeder Cattle: Regional feeder auctions reported active demand and tight calf offerings, with weight-tested calves and heavy feeders trading $5.00 to $15.00 higher across major regional sale barns. Despite strong cash index support, futures contracts pulled back late in the week under pressure from lower boxed beef cuts and spillover weakness from the live cattle pit. October feeder cattle closed stronger Friday at $345.225.
Outside markets saw high energy volatility and fresh record highs in equities as investors digested major corporate earnings and geopolitical headlines out of the Middle East.
Crude Oil: crude futures experienced sharp price swings. Oil plunged early in the week after reports indicated the U.S. decided against immediate military escalation in Iran, easing supply disruption fears. Prices clawed back ground later in the week as traders monitored ongoing talks surrounding shipping access in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude closed Friday at $77.08 per barrel.
S&P 500: Wall Street reached new records early in the week before stalling near the 7,800 resistance level. Strong Q2 earnings reports with over 85% of S&P 500 companies topping expectations helped offset concerns regarding elevated treasury yields and persistent higher inflation figures. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7777.25.
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